BEYOND THE BORDER: WHY INDIA’S GLOF EARLY WARNING NEEDS A HIMALAYAN NEIGHBORHOOD

There was a catastrophic flood in Nepal’s Rasuwa district, triggering an alarm about climate change, which does not respect the sovereign boundaries of nations. It puts us in a situation where survival may depend on the willingness of one state to share critical information with another, and on how effectively the science behind such events can be translated into public awareness and action among the people.

What NDMA Has Actually Built

The country is working to set up early-warning systems for nearly 200 Himalayan glacial lakes that are at risk of breaking their banks. The National Disaster Management Authority has projected nearly 190 high-altitude lakes to be considered dangerous (Gulf News, 2024). Mission Mausam is also being launched to make India weather-ready and climate-smart. The Common Alerting Protocol, with an outlay of nearly ₹354 crore, is being used to disseminate information regarding disasters to citizens through TV, radio, coastal sirens, the internet and other channels (PIB, 2025).

The National Disaster Management Authority has also initiated a pan-India, end-to-end, secure and disaster-grade cell-broadcasting system for faster dissemination of alerts to citizens. The India Meteorological Department also plays a role by issuing weather information, while the Central Water Commission monitors 902 glacial lakes and water bodies in the Himalayan region (PIB, 2025).

The National Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risk Mitigation Project has also been implemented in four states, with an outlay of nearly ₹150 crore. Early-warning systems and automatic weather stations are being set up as part of these efforts (PIB, 2025).

These efforts show that India is trying to build a system where disasters can be identified earlier and information can reach people faster. But the question is whether this system is enough when a GLOF can cross national borders.

Where the Domestic System Still Breaks

The constant delays in the implementation of the early-warning system led to the devastating Glacial Lake Outburst Flood in Sikkim. If the system had been fully operational, it could have helped save lives. This is a repeated scenario in the country, where the risks of South Lhonak Lake had been notified by scientists as early as 2021. The issue was that the area is only accessible between July and September. This time gap creates problems in starting the work. The clearances and coordination between all the agencies involved also consume a lot of time, especially in an environmentally sensitive area (Gulf News, 2023).

The disaster was not unpredictable; rather, it was unmonitored. Connecting scientific insights with action is a major factor that was missing in this incident. In today’s world, satellite-based monitoring can help track glacial lakes continuously, but cloud conditions remain a hurdle.

The Border Problem

According to a study titled Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risks, Response Strategies and Adaptation Gaps in the Hindu Kush Himalaya Region, GLOFs pose a growing threat to people living in the mountains as well as downstream communities. The study analysed 493 GLOF events and found that the average number of such events increased from nearly 7 per decade before 1950 to 38 per decade after 1950 (NDTV, 2026).

Dr Dipesh Chapagain, a senior scientist at the United Nations University, told NDTV that around 407 glacial lakes across the eight countries of the Hindu Kush Himalaya region are at risk of bursting. He also highlighted the gap between the increasing GLOF threat and the technical and financial capacity available at the grassroots level (NDTV, 2026).

The impact of El Niño, along with the warming of temperatures, can further increase the pressure on the already fragile Himalayan environment. These cumulative impacts can further enlarge the risks faced by communities living downstream. Dr Dinesh Kumar Aswal, a member of the NDMA, highlighted how the lack of effective communication is a major hurdle in saving lives, especially during the Nepal disaster. The speed at which the water was moving meant that people downstream had very little time to respond. This raises an important question for India: if a disaster originates across the border, how can our warning system respond when the information itself may have to come from another country? (NDTV, 2026)

Solutions

The proposed Himalayan Glacial Lake Monitoring Network (HiGLMN) can be used to bring together the information collected by different institutions and countries and create a common platform for monitoring glacial lakes in the Himalayan region. The research has highlighted that existing observations remain fragmented and that there is currently no unified framework or centralised, harmonised database for consistent monitoring across the Himalaya (Zhang et al., 2025).

This information can also be used to create an application which can continuously provide updates on the condition of glacial lakes and issue warnings to people living in areas that may be affected by a GLOF. The application can also show the safe areas and evacuation routes where people can move in case of a sudden GLOF. The proposed HiGLMN itself is designed to support early-warning systems, while hydrodynamic modelling can provide information on flood depth, velocity and inundation areas (Zhang et al., 2025).

HiGLMN can work in collaboration with agencies such as the IMD, CWC and ISRO to bring together weather data, satellite images and information collected from the ground. The research proposes combining remote sensing, in-situ observations and hydrodynamic modelling as part of the monitoring network (Zhang et al., 2025). This can help in making sure that the information collected by scientists is not only used for research but also reaches the people who need it.

For this to work, there will also be a need for proper funding and cooperation between the countries of the Himalayan region. The research also highlights the importance of international cooperation, particularly in transboundary basins where collaboration is necessary for effective disaster prevention (Zhang et al., 2025). The aim should be to create a system where information about a glacial lake can be shared quickly and warnings can reach people before the flood reaches them.

If a glacial lake does not recognise a border, our early-warning system should not be limited by one either.